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  1. I wanted to bump this thread because I think those who have been here for a while will get back some memories and its cool to see what it looked like in the past for those newer like me. The site is a little slow though. I found this while going through some old threads not necessarily for fossil info but to get a feel of the forum years ago like seeing @Fossildude19 say Wow hit 9000 members and then see when some awesome members became mods and collection curators. Anyway I wanted to create a graph (or 2) to see how members and posts went up because I'm a number and data guy. So I filled in 127 points over the past 13 and a half months for each graph and came up with this, Between September and October 2012 member count went down a few hundred for some reason but has been steady for over 10 years now and then post count has always been steady and I was quite surprised because I thought more members would mean a lot more posts but I guess as one member joins another one doesn't post anymore. I hope you enjoy
  2. I have a mathematics question that is tangentially related to fossil collecting. How do you figure out the total chance of rain during a collecting trip using the weather service rain predictions (should I bring my umbrella)? Can you give a general formula? Let us say that you are going on a three day trip with the following precipitation chances of measurable rain (chance of rain for any geographical point in forecast area) for each day: Friday 10%; Saturday 20% and Sunday 30%. What is the combined probability, Friday through Sunday, that it will rain at least once? Is rain likely? Assume that chance of rain for any period is independent of each other. I know that the total chance is at least as high as the highest chance for one day: 30%. It is lower than adding 10, 20 and 30 equals 60%. What is the % answer and the general formula? Thanks, John EDIT. I found a website post below with a similar question: There is a 20% chance of rain each day for 5 days; the chance of rain during the whole period is 67%. I did solve the problem correctly before I found website below, I think. Solve the problem by using the chance that it is not going to rain each day in decimal form: .9 x .8 x .7 = .504 or 50.4% chance that it is not going to rain. Therefore there is a 49.6 % chance of rain. Bring an umbrella. https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/266/ PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY BRAIN TEASER METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY A broadcast meteorologist gives the following forecast: Monday: 20% chance of rain Tuesday: 20% chance of rain Wednesday: 20% chance of rain Thursday: 20% chance of rain Friday: 20% chance of rain A viewer is having a week long outdoor event that lasts from Monday through Friday. Monday morning the viewer asks the broadcast meteorologist what the chance for rain is for the entire week as a whole. In other words the viewer wants to know what the chance is it will rain on either Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. What is the answer? Assume the probability of precipitation (POP) is independent for each day and the forecasted POP does not vary with time. SOLUTION: This situation represents the probability of rain within a 5 day period given at the beginning of the week and assumes each day is an independent probability. Two of the answer choices can be eliminated through applicable logic. It is known the probability of rain during the week is greater than 20% since each day has at least a 20% chance. It is also known the probability can not be 100% because the possibility is clearly evident that it might not rain at all during the week. A probability for this case is solved by multiplying the probability it will not rain each day and subtract this from 100%. The left over value is the chance that is will rain during the week. The chance of no rain each day is 80%. Thus the chance for no rain each day put together is: 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.33 or 33%. Since the chance for no rain is 33%, the chance for rain is 100% - 33% = 67%. (1 - 0.8^5) = 1 - 0.33 = 0.67 * 100% = 67% Thus, there is a 67% chance (or a 2 in 3 chance) that the viewer will have rain sometime during the week.
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