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I have a mathematics question that is tangentially related to fossil collecting. How do you figure out the total chance of rain during a collecting trip using the weather service rain predictions (should I bring my umbrella)? Can you give a general formula? Let us say that you are going on a three day trip with the following precipitation chances of measurable rain (chance of rain for any geographical point in forecast area) for each day: Friday 10%; Saturday 20% and Sunday 30%. What is the combined probability, Friday through Sunday, that it will rain at least once? Is rain likely? Assume that chance of rain for any period is independent of each other. I know that the total chance is at least as high as the highest chance for one day: 30%. It is lower than adding 10, 20 and 30 equals 60%. What is the % answer and the general formula? Thanks, John EDIT. I found a website post below with a similar question: There is a 20% chance of rain each day for 5 days; the chance of rain during the whole period is 67%. I did solve the problem correctly before I found website below, I think. Solve the problem by using the chance that it is not going to rain each day in decimal form: .9 x .8 x .7 = .504 or 50.4% chance that it is not going to rain. Therefore there is a 49.6 % chance of rain. Bring an umbrella. https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/266/ PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY BRAIN TEASER METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY A broadcast meteorologist gives the following forecast: Monday: 20% chance of rain Tuesday: 20% chance of rain Wednesday: 20% chance of rain Thursday: 20% chance of rain Friday: 20% chance of rain A viewer is having a week long outdoor event that lasts from Monday through Friday. Monday morning the viewer asks the broadcast meteorologist what the chance for rain is for the entire week as a whole. In other words the viewer wants to know what the chance is it will rain on either Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. What is the answer? Assume the probability of precipitation (POP) is independent for each day and the forecasted POP does not vary with time. SOLUTION: This situation represents the probability of rain within a 5 day period given at the beginning of the week and assumes each day is an independent probability. Two of the answer choices can be eliminated through applicable logic. It is known the probability of rain during the week is greater than 20% since each day has at least a 20% chance. It is also known the probability can not be 100% because the possibility is clearly evident that it might not rain at all during the week. A probability for this case is solved by multiplying the probability it will not rain each day and subtract this from 100%. The left over value is the chance that is will rain during the week. The chance of no rain each day is 80%. Thus the chance for no rain each day put together is: 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.33 or 33%. Since the chance for no rain is 33%, the chance for rain is 100% - 33% = 67%. (1 - 0.8^5) = 1 - 0.33 = 0.67 * 100% = 67% Thus, there is a 67% chance (or a 2 in 3 chance) that the viewer will have rain sometime during the week.
Disentangling the history of complex multi-phased shell beds based on the analysis of 3D point cloud data Mathias Harzhauser, Ana Djuricic,Oleg Mandic,Martin Zuschin,Peter Dorninger,Clemens Nothegger,Balázs Székelyb,Eetu Puttonen,Gábor Molnárb,Norbert Pfeifer Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology Volume 437, 1 November 2015, Pages 165-180 1-s2.0-S0031018215004149-main.pdf taxa concerned: Paroxystele amedei (Brongniart, 1823) r Superfamily: Neritoidea Rafinesque, 1815 Agapilia pachii c Nerita plutonis (Basterot, 1825) f Superfamily: Cerithoidea Férussac, 1821–1822 Ptychopotamides papaveraceus (Basterot, 1825) f Granulolabium bicinctum (Brocchi, 1814) r Turritella gradata (Hörnes, 1856) r Oligodia bicarinata (Eichwald, 1830) r Petaloconchus intortus (Lamarck, 1822) c Superfamily: Calyptraeoidea Lamarck, 1822 Calyptraea depressa (Lamarck, 1822) f Calyptraea irregularis (Cossmann & Peyrot, 1919) f Superfamily: Velutinoidea Gray, 1840 Erato sp. r Superfamily: Naticoidea Guilding, 1834 Polinices pseudoredemptus (Friedberg, 1923) f Neverita josephinia (Risso, 1826) r Superfamily: Muricoidea Rafinesque, 1815 Ocenebra crassilabiata (Hilber, 1879) c Ocinebrina striata (Eichwald, 1853) c Janssenia echinulata (Pusch, 1837) r Nassarius edlaueri (Beer-Bistricky, 1958) f Cyllenina suessi (Hoernes and Auinger, 1882) c Tudicla rusticula (Basterot, 1825) c Superfamily: Cancellariidae Forbes and Hanley, 1851 Solatia exwestiana (Sacco, 1894) r Superfamily: Conoidea Rafinesque, 1815 Perrona semimarginata (Lamarck, 1822) r Perrona louisae (Hoernes and Auinger, 1891) r Perrona vindobonensis (Hörnes, 1854) r Class: Cephalopoda Cuvier, 1795 Aturia aturi (Basterot, 1825) r Class: Bivalvia Linnaeus, 1758 Superfamily: Gastrochaenoidea Gray, 1840 Rocellaria dubia (Pennant, 1777) r ok,am quitting the italics for once Superfamily: Arcoidea Lamarck, 1809 Anadara diluvii (de Lamarck, 1805) r Superfamily: Limopsoidea Dall, 1895 Glycymeris deshayesi (Mayer, 1868) r Superfamily: Mytiloidea Rafinesqe, 1815 Perna aquitanica (Mayer, 1858) f Septifer oblitus (Michelotti, 1847) r Superfamily: Pteriidae Gray, 1847 Isognomon soldanii (Deshayes, 1836) r Superfamily: Pectinoidea Rafinesqe, 1815 Pecten styriacus (Hilber, 1879) r Aequipecten macrotis (Sowerby in Smith, 1847) r Superfamily: Anomioidea Rafinesque, 1815 Anomia ephippium Linnaeus, 1758 r Superfamily: Ostreoidea Rafinesque, 1815 Crassostrea gryphoides (Schlotheim, 1813) f Ostrea digitalina (Dubois de Montpereux, 1831) f Superfamily: Lucinoidea Fleming, 1828 Loripes dujardini (Deshayes, 1850) r Megaxinus incrassatus (Dubois de Montpereux, 1831) r Diplodonta rotundata (Montagu, 1803) r Superfamily: Chamoidea Lamarck, 1822 Pseudochama gryphina (Lamarck, 1819) r Superfamily: Cardioidea Lamarck, 1809 Cardium hians (Brocchi, 1814) Acanthocardia paucicostata (Sowerby, 1839) f Superfamily: Mactroidea Lamarck, 1809 Ervilia pusilla (Philippi, 1836) r Superfamily: Solenoidea Lamarck, 1809 Solen marginatus (Pulteney, 1799) c Superfamily: Tellinoidea de Blainville, 1814 Tellina planata (Linnaeus, 1758) r Superfamily: Veneroidea Rafinesque, 1815 Cordiopsis islandicoides (Lamarck, 1818) r Venerupis basteroti (Mayer, 1857) f related editorial note: GEOSPHERE is a free access publication;the link is quite long,and i noticed i got the message : session timed out so: a slightly more indirect way of pointing the way: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geosphere/article/12/5/1457/189679/high-resolution-3d-surface-modeling-of-a-fossil High-resolution 3D surface modeling of a fossil oyster reef Ana Djuricic Peter Dorninger Clemens Nothegger Mathias Harzhauser Balázs Székely Sascha Rasztovits Oleg Mandic Gábor Molnár Norbert Pfeifer Geosphere (2016) 12 (5): 1457-1477. WARNING: 45 MB
Parent_1997-Geobios.pdf Ontogeny and Sexual dimorphism of Eurycephalites gottschei(Tornquist)(Ammonoidea) of the Andean Lower Callovian(Argentine-Chile) Geobios 30-3,30-6-1997 recommended? You bet!! Avoid if allergic to quantitative analytic data treatment
Johnson/2003Mitt.Mus.NaturkBerl., Geowiss. Reihe 6 (2003) 125-160 Nature of the beast (pun intended): taxonomical (systematic) Monograph " Dentitions of Barbclabomia (new genus, Chondrichthyes: Xenacanthiformes) from the Upper Palaeozoic of North America Gary D. Johnson' With 14 figures and 3 tables recommended, particularly for those interested in xenacanthids, orthacanthids, etc About 5 Mb Abstract Barbclabornia luedersensis (Berman, 1970) is defined on the basis of small (2 111117 high) isolated teeth that lack an intermediate cusp. It is known from the Lower Permian and possibly the Upper Pennsylvanian of North America. The two principal cusps are slightly curved orally, nearly parallel, and bear cristae mainly on their distal halves. They are cylindrical but become compressed proximally. The long axis of each cusp base is >45" to the labial margin of the tooth base. The base bears a prominent apical button in contact with the cusps; a central foramen is absent. Fewer than ten foramina occur on the aboral surface of the base, which bears a prominent concave basal tubercle. The shape of the base ranges from somewhat triangular to quadrangular. The cusps are composed of orthodentine covered by hypermineralized pallial dentine; the base is composed of orthodentine but may also contain trabecular dentine. Except for the possible occurrence of symphysial teeth, the dentition is homodont. Barbclabornia cf. B. luedersensis is stratigraphically highest in the known range of the genus and is restricted to the nearly lowermost part of the Clear Fork Group (Artinskian) of Texas. The teeth are similar to B. lztedersensis, but are more robust and have a quadrangular-shaped base. Barbclabornia was large, based on an undescribed palatoquadrate some 45 cm long. It was probably freshwater and is most closely related to Triodus. Key words: Chondrichthyans, Xenacanthiformes, Early Permian, North America.