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2024 Total Eclipse


Missourian

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Since the big celestial show is just three weeks away, I figure it's time for a new eclipse thread. B)

 

Link to the 2017 Total Eclipse thread, for reference:

https://www.thefossilforum.com/topic/67852-2017-total-eclipse/

 

Interactive Google map of the 2024 path:

http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/TSE_2024_GoogleMapFull.html

 

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As eclipse expert/enthusiast Fred Espenak says, the first three rules of eclipse observing strategy are "mobility, mobility, and mobility".

 

The eclipse is most likely to be cloud free in Mexico according to climate data for early April:

ASY-EW0424_2.thumb.webp.d21db9b91994f3e1a3979b1691fe45a2.webp

If I had to be stuck in place, I would pick a spot in central or west Mexico. However, if one's mobility in the US was completely flexible, the odds of finding clear skies somewhere may still be higher. With a possibly long road trip in store, the 1 to 3 day forecasts will become critical. Once it becomes clear where the weather systems will lie on April 8, then it will come down to finding the clear spots or spots with cloud types that may be less hindering. Let's just hope we don't have one of those major storm systems with continent-extending fronts and cloud shield.

 

Also according to climate data, many areas are slightly more likely to experience favorable cloud conditions due to the current El Niño:

ASY-EW0424_3.thumb.webp.404b316159150a4c7bf84dc04a00320f.webp

 

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As for lodging, I would plan to stay somewhere some distance from the line of totality to avoid issues with no-vacancy or exorbitant rates.

 

A few years ago, perhaps in impatient anticipation, I made this road-trip scenario map:

 

2024-eclipse-Plan-A--B.thumb.jpg.8aa89036db4587196498ce83baab55b3.jpg

 

The red routes are what I would expect to be (long) day trips, while the purple ones would involve lodging overnight. The green circle is where I ended up during the 2017 eclipse. That was a 'day trip' that involved driving there, waiting, observing the eclipse, and driving home all in one shot from 11 PM to the evening the next day. I don't recommend that to those who don't have the crazy sleep deprivation tolerance that I can have at times. :) I made the decision to scuttle observing totality at home as the deteriorating weather conditions in Kansas City were becoming apparent.

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I have plans on being in Hillsboro, Tx.  It is about as close to the center of ecplise with about 4 1/2 minutes of totality.  Its also a decision factor that there is a fossil museum there also!

"There is no shortage of fossils. There is only a shortage of paleontologists to study them." - Larry Martin

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In 2017, NOAA produced cloud cover maps for the time of the eclipse. They likely will this time as well.

 

NOAA outlook 4 days out. Favorable zones were emerging centered on Oregon and Tennessee. Note the 'clear' area in central Nebraska here:

 

Aug-17_1837-UT.thumb.jpg.19ea3c7416fea92a0c314ce991a444f5.jpg

 

Two days out, Nebraska isn't looking so good. OR and TN are still trending well:

 

Aug-19_1237-UT.thumb.jpg.36418986fd2caff5aa39890fa4c55bec.jpg

 

By the evening before the eclipse, it was looking like Nebraska may likely be a washout. This is when I decided to head toward southern Illinois or eastward:

 

Aug-20_2040-EDT.png.723db786ce3a84b59c70e28b90f84e49.png

 

By the morning of the eclipse, while I was on the road, the excellent NWS office in St. Louis was predicting a line of thundershowers in SE Missouri and S Illinois. This prompted me to drive a bit further. The map early on eclipse day:

 

Aug-21_0837-EDT.thumb.jpg.262ea0703d224634c6f92a3d07bc56ad.jpg

 

I eventually ended up in Eddyville, Kentucky.

 

Note the very last-minute 'clear area' east of Kansas City. This did materialize in reality, but it still would been way too much of a risk to remain in town.

 

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Cloud conditions on April 8 in 1994:

 

1994.thumb.jpg.b748d38f02e78e8015747efb1b202016.jpg

 

2007:

 

2007.thumb.jpg.179b39c71ec781d34a1abdf2dd911bfc.jpg

 

2013:

 

2013.thumb.jpg.3d1c97ff9937eaee2635252edfa63688.jpg

 

2022:

 

2022.thumb.jpg.cf730096ef3b2501d78b8e0cd8c64fef.jpg

 

2023:

 

2023.thumb.jpg.0f69e81eb1ca1c9efdb5c756a3de6137.jpg

 

it just goes to show that climate is what you expect, and weather is what you get!

 

Video with April 8 cloud cover since 1979 can be found here:

 

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/51768

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In 2017 I couldn’t decide between staying where I was and watching a 90% eclipse or driving 3 hours to see a total eclipse. Luckily I made the choice to drive and watch the total eclipse. I went to a small town park very early to avoid traffic. Within hours hundreds of people showed up. Then clouds began to form all around us but they never blocked the sun. We had a perfect view of the total eclipse. It was definitely worth the drive. Much more impressive than I had imagined. My coworkers who didn’t go anywhere said the 90% eclipse wasn’t worth watching. They barely noticed a dimming of the sun.

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Saw the 2017 eclipse form a tiny town in Idaho (and then spent 5 hours on a 2-lane road winding through the mountains at an average speed of 0 mph for much of the time). :duh2:

 

P8214779.jpg P8214780.jpg P8214785.jpg

 

This time we'll be with Tammy's sister's family again only we'll be in Waco, TX. Hoping the influx of skyward looking tourists won't also be looking down and swamping the Waco Mammoth National Monument which we hope to visit while in the area. Don't suspect we'll have much time to take in any interesting fossil hunting locations in the Waco/Dallas vicinity but who knows I might find something to do in the brief time we'll have on this visit. Fingers crossed for clear skies for at least 4 minutes and 13 seconds. ;)

 

https://www.nps.gov/waco/index.htm

 

StackedSequence-800x1000.jpg

 

The difference between seeing totality and a partial eclipse is akin to the difference between watching a movie on an 80" 4K TV versus a 15" B&W TV from the 1960s--no contest at all. For those who can't make the time to line-up under the path of totality on April 8, it is still cool to see the crescent shadows under trees.

 

Cheers.

 

-Ken

 

P8214741.jpg

 

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I watched the "ring of fire" eclipse in October, and actually viewing it through the clouds made it a lot easier - it wasn't just a blur of light obscuring details of the eclipse, but actually defined the outline of the sun beautifully. In short - don't lose hope if there's cloud cover! 

 

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“Not only is the universe stranger than we think, it is stranger than we can think” -Werner Heisenberg 

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5 hours ago, Al Dente said:

In 2017 I couldn’t decide between staying where I was and watching a 90% eclipse or driving 3 hours to see a total eclipse. Luckily I made the choice to drive and watch the total eclipse. I went to a small town park very early to avoid traffic. Within hours hundreds of people showed up. Then clouds began to form all around us but they never blocked the sun. We had a perfect view of the total eclipse. It was definitely worth the drive. Much more impressive than I had imagined. My coworkers who didn’t go anywhere said the 90% eclipse wasn’t worth watching. They barely noticed a dimming of the sun.

 

THIS.

 

Anything less than 100% is a complete miss!!

 

I feel it was a shame to hold a big eclipse-watching event at 'Science City' at Union Station in downtown Kansas City in 2017 (see bottom of map below). It was a mere few blocks away from totality! :

 

ScreenShot2024-03-16at6_32_29PM.thumb.png.38b9ce7219bc1e3777839117b1ee6c7b.png

 

(Caveat: I would take it back if they encouraged visitors to make their way a bit further north in time to witness totality.)

 

Additionally, I wish the media wouldn't push these percent values. They give a false impression of relative value.

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AVOID THIS!!! :

 

 

I.E., don't restrict your mobility as totality approaches. The weather conditions were fairly favorable in Carbondale, Illinois. However, these poor people were stuck in a stadium as a small cloud ruined totality. They could have driven or even walked to a clear area if they weren't stuck in place.

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5 hours ago, digit said:

Saw the 2017 eclipse form a tiny town in Idaho (and then spent 5 hours on a 2-lane road winding through the mountains at an average speed of 0 mph for much of the time). :duh2:

 

One thing learned in 2017 was that the traffic was much worse after the eclipse than before. Once totality is over, everyone heads for their cars.

  

5 hours ago, digit said:

The difference between seeing totality and a partial eclipse is akin to the difference between watching a movie on an 80" 4K TV versus a 15" B&W TV from the 1960s--no contest at all.

 

I'd say it's more like the difference between watching a movie on the 80" 4K TV versus watching shadow puppets on a cave wall during the Stone Age. :)

 

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5 hours ago, Jared C said:

I watched the "ring of fire" eclipse in October, and actually viewing it through the clouds made it a lot easier - it wasn't just a blur of light obscuring details of the eclipse, but actually defined the outline of the sun beautifully. In short - don't lose hope if there's cloud cover!

 

Agreed. The annular/partial eclipse last October was actually enhanced here in KC as dappled clouds moved over the sun. Unfortunately, though, it was completely obscured at maximum eclipse.

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1 hour ago, Missourian said:

watching shadow puppets on a cave wall during the Stone Age. :)

I'd be up for that! :P

 

 

Cheers.

 

-Ken

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm planning on taking the 13.5 hour drive down to Austin, Texas for the eclipse. Looking forward to my first one!

“If fossils are not "boggling" your mind then you are simply not doing it right” -Ken (digit)

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The penumbral lunar eclipse is occurring right now. That means the total eclipse is exactly one half lunar month away!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anyone watching the eclipse around Bloomington, Indiana?

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My wife and I had been planning on staying in Austin for the eclipse, then heading north for several days of fossil collecting with friends but we bailed out of our plans 6 hours before our flight because of predicted cloud cover and rain. All our reservations were refundable so we didn’t lose any money. I’ll be interested in hearing reports from people around Austin on what they were able to see.

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We'll decide last minute tomorrow, but unless the forecast improves, we wont be making the 5 hour drive to try to catch it.

"There is no shortage of fossils. There is only a shortage of paleontologists to study them." - Larry Martin

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3 hours ago, Al Dente said:

I’ll be interested in hearing reports from people around Austin on what they were able to see.

We're 100 miles away in Waco. Forecast is iffy but Tammy's sister's family rented a house and we flew in this morning. Was iffy getting a rental car which almost had us doing a 16 hour roadtrip from Gainesville. We got a private rental (which is a rattle-trap bucket of bolts) but we're in position in Waco and hoping the clouds stay away on Monday. It was socked in this morning looking so gloomy that I've seen it brighter DURING an eclipse. Super windy (flags fully unfurled and flapping in the breeze) which are providing variable conditions. Actually got a bit of clear sky at the moment but what counts is at 1:38pm on Monday.

 

Took photos back in 2017 and this time I'm not going to bother with a camera but just experience the black hole punch in the sky for the 4 minutes without bothering to capture it for posterity. Might set up a camera and shoot video of the event at ground level just to capture the quick change to darkness from 99% to 100%. As I remember it the last percentage is quite literally like "night and day".

 

Did poke around some Cretaceous age spots for fossils earlier today--mainly because it is a novelty since Florida doesn't have formations that old at the surface. Got a few bits but enjoyed our day driving around and developing search images for something novel.

 

Looking forward to hearing which other members are getting in position.

 

 

Cheers.

 

-Ken

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We watched it in north Georgia (US) in 17.  Rented a Cain that was luckily on top of a hill/mountain. The entire mountain went dark and the birds all went silent. Super bonkers experience. what was crazy was watching the darkness come racing over the other mountain’s until it hit us. Kinda like the Never Ending Story and the “Nothing” 

 

Enjoy everyone. Positive vibes headed your way for clear skies. 
 

Jp

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Weather for Waco is (presently) an 8% chance of rain at 1pm and 51% chance of rain at 2pm (totality starts 1:38pm local time). Possible chance for nasty weather including thunderstorms and hail. Less then 24 hours till the big event and it could go either way.

 

Decided to drop by the Waco Mammoth National Monument today to check on the level of insanity there. I kinda wonder whether this weekend's attendance at the site might double the total attendance since the monument opened in 2015. :P All of the normal parking spots were taken and there were cars lined up along both sides of the long entrance road and out onto the main road leading to the monument. Most folks spend less than an hour actually viewing the site so there is turnover in parking. We drove all the way in so we could turn around and spotted folks walking to their cars. We likely could have parked but the line of folks standing in the grass waiting to pay to get in was several hundred people deep. Lunch and scoping out an open area to attempt tomorrow's viewing were more pressing than waiting for hours to see this site. Some other day on some other trip for this site. ;)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waco_Mammoth_National_Monument

 

https://www.nps.gov/waco/index.htm

 

 

Cheers.

 

-Ken

 

MammothLine.jpg

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Yikes...

I had faint hope after missing the 2017 eclipse that I would manage somehow to travel to see this one, but no such luck (and no surprise). Now I'm looking forward to the one 20 years from now in Alberta or the one in N Calif the year after. Hoping for clear skies for those of you that get to see it tomorrow. I would hate to travel across the continent or ocean to see an eclipse or transit just to have cloud show up at the last minute and ruin it! The longer I live the more lucky I feel to have seen the Venus Transit in 2012. I could have easily missed it due to cloud, as there was a lot of it (including rain) for days before and after, yet they miraculously dissipated around the start of the transit and remained clear until a bit of cloud on the horizon interfered with it at sunset. Seeing it from home and the latter part from my local fossil-hunting hillside was that much more special.

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Perfectly clear skies in KC.  Before our astrotographers start posting desktop worthy pictures, here is a meh shot taken by an average jay….

 

IMG_1297.thumb.jpeg.bf91898ee6596c3b11ae80a958124979.jpeg

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-Jay

 

 

 

''...science is eminently perfectible, and that each theory has constantly to give way to a fresh one.''

-Journey to the Center of the Earth, Jules Verne

 

 

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From Canyon Texas. Got somewhere around 87%. Not too terrible for an iPhone photo.

IMG_6995.jpeg

IMG_7007.jpeg

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